The Sky That Governs India


Every year, sometime between the last days of May and the first breath of June, fishermen on the Kerala coast look up and see the sky change colour. The clouds that gather off the Malabar shoreline are not the thin, translucent wisps of summer — they are dark, muscular, carrying the weight of the Indian Ocean in their bellies. When those clouds finally break over Thiruvananthapuram, the whole country holds its breath as that means the arrival of the monsoon and the beginning of India’s great annual reckoning.

This year, the Southwest Monsoon made landfall over Kerala on 4 June 2026 — three days later than its normal date of 1 June, and nine days behind the India Meteorological Department’s own forecast of 26 May. But the delay is almost beside the point.

What matters far more was the shadow already falling over the season: the IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall at just 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a 60 per cent probability of a deficient or drought monsoon. The culprit, as so often before, is El Niño — a warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that has, for centuries, starved the subcontinent of rain. And it has already started forming!

The Reckoning of Centuries

India’s relationship with its sky is ancient, and its ledger runs red. Research published in Geophysical Research Letters by Mishra et al. (2019) found that five of the six major famines recorded between 1870 and 2016 were caused primarily by soil moisture droughts driven by monsoon failures — many of them coinciding with strong El Niño events, precisely the pattern scientists warn of today.

The 1876–78 Great Famine, triggered when the monsoon collapsed across both south and north India, affected a population of 58.5 million people and killed between 6.1 and 10.3 million — one of the deadliest climate disasters in recorded human history. Colonial grain exports to England continued even as people starved, compounding the catastrophe.

Even before systematic records, drought shaped Indian civilisation. Researchers studying cave formations in the Garhwal Himalaya have traced extreme monsoon failures back centuries — including a severe event around 1400 CE that overlaps with the Durga Devi Famine, which devastated western India for more than a decade. The 1640 CE drought record in the same data aligned with the so-called ‘Ming Dynasty Drought’ that struck both China and northern India simultaneously. The monsoon, it turns out, is not merely a regional weather system. It is a planetary force.

The Western Ghats

From Kerala, the monsoon divides. One arm drives northeast, up the flanks of the Western Ghats — that ancient spine of mountains running 1,600 kilometres along India’s west coast. In Cherrapunji, the rain does not merely fall — it drowns. It has recorded over 11,000 millimetres of rainfall in a year, earning its reputation as one of the wettest places on earth. Yet even Cherrapunji has known drought; the monsoon’s cruelty lies not just in its absence but in the capriciousness of its distribution.

The Ghats act as both shield and sieve. Villages on the windward western slopes receive torrential rain — mango groves, paddy terraces, and spice plantations drink deep. Farmers in these zones often call the first week of the monsoon a kind of liberation — from debt, from anxiety, from the white-hot tedium of a pre-monsoon May. But the rain shadow on the Deccan side tells a different story: villages that wait while the Ghats catch the moisture, leaving the plateau drier and more anxious than the coast below.

The Economy in the Clouds

Agriculture accounts for approximately 18 per cent of India’s GDP at current prices, and employs around 42 per cent of the population. Around 55 per cent of India’s arable land remains rain-fed — directly dependent on what the sky provides. Even the irrigated 45 per cent is not immune: when reservoirs drop and groundwater falls in drought years, infrastructure becomes unreliable. The 2023 monsoon offered the most recent and painful proof.

That season ended with a 6 per cent overall deficit (5.6% per NABARD annual report), but the damage was brutally uneven — 221 out of 718 districts received below-normal rainfall. Pulse cultivation fell, oilseed planting dropped. India’s agricultural growth rate slumped to 1.4 per cent in FY24, the lowest figure in eight years, Foodgrain production declined to 328.8 million tonnes, down from the record 329.7 million in 2022–23. The inflation impact was immediate and felt hardest by those who could least afford it.

The Northern Plains and the Delta

By late June, if the monsoon is behaving, it crosses the Vindhyas into the great Indo-Gangetic Plain — the flatlands of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal that feed hundreds of millions. Kharif crops — rice, maize, cotton, sorghum — are sown in July. More than half of all Kharif sowing takes place in this single month, making July the most economically consequential four weeks in the Indian agricultural calendar. The IMD’s guidance and crop sowing bulletins, issued through this period, are tracked by commodity traders, state governments, and the federal Cabinet alike.

The monsoon’s final act plays out in the northeast. By early June, it reaches the Brahmaputra valley in Assam, where the river swells to a brown, muscular enormity, flooding tea gardens and rice fields alike. The Brahmaputra carries more water than almost any river on earth during peak monsoon — and its floods, though destructive, also deposit the rich silt that makes Assam’s plains among the most fertile in the country. It is a violent generosity that the people of this valley have learned to live with across generations.

Watch the Sky

Through all of this — from Kerala’s first shower to Assam’s last flood — the government of India shifts into a particular mode of attention. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs monitors crop sowing data weekly. The Ministry of Jal Shakti tracks reservoir levels across 150 major dams. The IMD issues ensemble forecasts every week through the season, and ministers speak of ‘normal monsoon’ or ‘deficit monsoon’ with the gravity of generals reporting from a front. Minimum support prices for crops are adjusted, buffer stocks managed, import duties on pulses and edible oils recalibrated. The monsoon does not just water fields — it rewrites fiscal policy in real time.

India has come far from 1877. Irrigation coverage has grown from 17 per cent in 1951 to over 47 per cent by 2011. Buffer food stocks give governments tools that colonial administrators never had. Weather forecasting has improved beyond recognition — the IMD’s 2025 forecast of Kerala onset on 27 May was accurate to within three days. And yet, as the 2026 season begins under the shadow of a potentially super El Niño, with 90 per cent of LPA forecast and 60 per cent odds of deficiency, the fundamental truth remains unchanged: India lives, breathes, and eats by the grace of its sky. The monsoon and India are still twins — and this year, as always, they are testing each other.

Murshidabad : Where History Goes to Vote


In Murshidabad, the Bhagirathi river moves slowly. It always has. Narrower than the Ganga it once was, silted and quieter now, it slides past the great yellow facade of the Hazarduari Palace with the indifference of a river that has seen too much and for too long.

On its far bank, across a short ferry crossing, lies Khushbagh — the Garden of Happiness — where Siraj-ud-Daulah, the last independent Nawab of Bengal, sleeps in a grave surrounded by mango trees. The past and the present press together in Murshidabad with an intimacy you will not find anywhere else in India.

Last week Murshidabad voted in the first round of state polls to elect representatives to the 294-member West Bengal Legislative Assembly, with incumbent Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee seeking a fourth straight term. The second, and final phase of voting will be on Wednesday. Results, along with those from Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, are due on May 4.

The election campaign in Murshidabad felt heavier than elsewhere, charged with a particular dread, as it is one of the most demographically complex districts in India. Its proximity to the Bangladesh border makes it a frequent target of political rhetoric regarding “infiltrators” and national security, creating a polarised environment where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) argues for “purifying” the voter list, while the ruling Trinamool Congress and Congress party characterise the exercise as a threat to legitimate citizens.

Muslims form the majority in Murshidabad district. It is widely believed that they form up to 67% of its population. Across tea stalls on the highway to Kolkata and narrow village lanes, a same story repeated: names deleted, documents demanded, families split between those who can vote and those who cannot.

The district is known for its historically high civic engagement, but this time – after the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls — voters seem to have turned out in even larger numbers. Yet, the mood into the run-up to polling was not of celebration but suspicion. Central security forces were everywhere — boots on roads that once heard only the shuffle of weavers and the clatter of coin-changers.

The electoral battle in Murshidabad is not just about political ideology but also about economic survival and identity. The district’s “beedi belt” features some of the wealthiest candidates in the state competing for the votes of some of the state’s poorest workers. The TMC holds the ground here, as it has for fifteen years, but the BJP senses possibility.

To understand why this place matters so enormously, you must walk toward its palatial mansions left behind by history. During the 18th century, Murshidabad was a prosperous and cosmopolitan town, the capital of Bengal Subah for seventy years. It was home to wealthy banking and merchant families from different parts of the Indian subcontinent and wider Eurasia. The Bengal-Bihar-Orissa triangle was a major production centre for cotton muslin cloth, silk, shipbuilding, gunpowder, and saltpetre. Murshidabad itself was a great centre of silk. European companies — British, French, Dutch, Danish — all conducted business and operated factories around the city, which was also a centre of art and culture. The city’s wealth, by some estimates of the era, exceeded that of London. Murshidabad contributed five per cent of world GDP in the late 1700s and early 1800s.

Jagat Seths and Sheherwalis

Standing at the heart of this was the Jagat Seth family. Their banking empire was often compared to the Bank of England in importance. They managed government funds, collected revenue, and even minted coins. The title Jagat Seth — Banker of the World — was granted by the Mughal Emperor himself. The Nawabs, backed by bankers such as the Jagat Seth, became the financial backbone of the Mughal court, while also serving as financiers to European companies operating in the region. They were not alone.

A community of Rajasthani businessmen who called themselves the “Sheherwalis” — city dwellers — migrated to Murshidabad and worked tirelessly to build empires in textile and banking, becoming zamindars and adapting to the then-prevalent cultural influences of Mughal, British, and European Bengal to create their own unique culture. The Sheherwalis settled in the twin towns of Azimganj and Jiaganj. It is said the combined wealth of 20 to 30 Sheherwali families surpassed that of the entire British aristocracy of the time.

They built palatial mansions along the river — Corinthian pillars, chequered marble floors, stained glass catching the Bengal light — each one a monument to the triumph of trade and commerce. One of these survives in remarkable form. The Dudhorias built Bari Kothi in 1774 , a haveli whose name — the Palace of the Elder — speaks to its place at the top of the family hierarchy.

For nearly half a century it lay abandoned, its grandeur crumbling behind locked gates. From the 1960s, most of Azimganj’s influential families had started shifting to Calcutta. The Naxalite movement dealt the final blow, making it unsafe and compelling the last few families to bow out. By the 1990s, Azimganj was reduced to a desolate address whose looted palaces stood in despair and ruin.

Then, in a story that has something of the fairy tale about it, the brother-sister duo Darshan and Lipika Dudhoria engaged a Canadian restoration specialist to bring Bari Kothi back over five years, turning it into the first grand heritage hotel of east India, entirely managed by the local community. Today it stands on the riverbank in Azimganj — amber walls, antique furnishings, the sound of Baul music drifting across the courtyard at dusk — a small, breathing resurrection in a landscape of dignified decay.

Getting to it, however, requires a strenuous road trip or a river crossing that is itself a journey through time. To cross over to neighbouring Azimganj from Jiaganj, one must wait for a local bamboo raft boat. Of the two varieties that ply the Bhagirathi, one is a passenger boat while the other carries both passengers and vehicles.

Some fellow travellers made it to this extraordinary craft — a broad, flat platform of lashed bamboo and timber, a small engine coughing at the stern, motorcycles and a loaded tempo wedged improbably in the middle, passengers gripping the rails as the current caught them sideways. Travelling in the mornings is particularly difficult, as there are long queues.

During the monsoon, when the Bhagirathi rises and the tides turn fierce, the boat service is suspended by the authorities. Residents are left stranded, hoping for the tides to calm down. There is, apparently, a local legend that explains the absence of a bridge: Goddess Lakshmi, angered by the greed of the Jagat Seths, cursed the Bhagirathi, and this curse is the reason a bridge has still not been built. Whether or not one believes the curse, the bamboo barge has been the only link across this stretch of river for generations.

A Swift Downfall

The downfall of Murshidabad came swiftly, and it was, in the end, a betrayal of almost operatic dimensions. The conspirators who brought down Siraj-ud-Daulah included his commander-in-chief Mir Jafar, his general Rai Durlabh, and the influential Jagat Seths. When Siraj-ud-Daulah demanded a huge tribute from the Seths and reportedly struck them in anger, the family sided with Robert Clive and the East India Company, financing his campaign against the Nawab.

Clive and his army of some 3,000 were outnumbered by the Nawab’s 50,000-strong forces but were victorious because of the defection of Mir Jafar and the political brokering of the Jagat Seths. On 23 June 1757, the Battle of Plassey ended Bengal’s independence forever. The city’s decline began that day.

What the British left behind they left in stone. The grandest monument is the Hazarduari Palace. Based on designs by Colonel Duncan McLeod, the palace was built in the nineteenth-century Neoclassical Italianate style with Doric order influences, by Nawab Nazim Humayun Jah between 1824 and 1838. The grand yellow-coloured structure with Greek Doric columns spreads magnificently on the banks of the Bhagirathi. Its name means “a palace with a thousand doors,” of which one hundred are false — built so that any intruder trying to escape would be confused between the real and fake doors long enough to be caught by the Nawab’s guards. It is a magnificent conceit, and also a useful metaphor for a city full of false exits.

Inside, the museum holds the accumulated grandeur of a broken court: paintings, thrones, chandeliers, armour, Victorian carriages, and a giant stuffed crocodile on the landing. The Hazarduari complex also includes the Nizamat Imambara, the Murshidabad Clock Tower, the Madina Mosque, the Chawk Masjid, and the spectacular Bacchawali Tope — a cannon said to have been fired only once, its sound so thunderous that it reportedly induced labour in pregnant women within a ten-mile radius. Beyond the palace, the Jagat Seth house, the Cossimbazar Palace — where the British once ran their silk factory — and the crumbling Katra Masjid built by Murshid Quli Khan complete a landscape dense with memory.

In modern India, Murshidabad is among the most impoverished districts in West Bengal — once the richest city on the subcontinent, now dependent on the beedi industry, silk weaving, and agriculture. Its people are acutely aware of the irony. The weavers produce some of the finest silk in India, yet the looms earn barely enough to live on. The mango orchards along the Bhagirathi produce fruit of extraordinary quality, and the river itself, though diminished, still frames the town in a kind of melancholy beauty — wide skies, flat alluvial plains, and the distant call of the azaan drifting over still water at dusk.

As I walk back toward the Bari Kothi from the edge of the Bhagirathi, I meet an elderly woman sitting on the steps of an decrepit building. She will vote, she says. However, she is not sure it will change anything. Behind her, the building’s wooden doors look out to the river that has carried so much of this history away. Murshidabad taught India what betrayal costs. In 2026, it is still learning whether the lesson was ever truly understood.

Trump win heralds higher tariffs for Asian businesses


From China to Japan, the Philippines to India, nations prepare for more volatility. Read more here.

Two Conversations


The first was with an old friend who now lives in the United States. We go back 35 years, studied journalism together and shared an apartment for some years.

We have, what my wife says, “venting calls” ever so often. Both he and I belong to a different time and are mostly unable to comprehend why we as people are the way we are when we always have had the option of being otherwise.We make predictions — political and economic — and they mostly come true.

Not so long back we had discussed the possibility of the Covid virus hitting India hard and mutually agreed we could potentially witness a catastrophe. We predicted reasons that would lead India into a dark tunnel where the only light would be those of many pyres. I don’t want to list them, but they all came true.

The other morning we spoke again and tried to not despair even as we talked about what this latest surge was doing to India and Indians — friends, families, colleagues, acquaintances, neighbours and even strangers. He told me he had lost a few relatives to Covid and his elder brother was in the ICU for the past five days. I told him about the challenges we as a people, a nation, were facing. He was sounding brave, but I knew he was rattled.

There is little he can do sitting far except worry. He said he had hardly been able to focus on work in the past 10 days because of the deaths in his family.We spoke about our journey as journalists, worried over the current state of the media and wondered when and where this would end.

He told me to get my sons out of the country, reminding me of a story about one of his relatives who always said he believed in the “Quit India Movement” and had, therefore, first sent his children overseas and then followed them.We also tried to look for funny things in these dire times and laughed nervous laughs.

At one point he got distracted, as his wife called out from another part of his house as he laughed. “No, no I am not crying” he told his wife.

We got to start getting very worried when our laughs begin to sound like sobs. Also when Supreme Court judges and children of politicians die, friends and relatives don’t get oxygen and common people have to be cremated by the roadside because cremation grounds have run out of space.My second conversation was with someone who had a role in saving my life when I was struck by Covid and had to be hospitalised back in December.She’s a nurse at the hospital I was admitted to.

I don’t know what she looks like as everybody was wrapped in PPE suits, but she had dancing eyes and her voice was always calm. She was around for the first seven days of my stay in hospital and then she had a two-day break before she returned to bid me goodbye when I was discharged. “Don’t come back,” she said joyously, wagging a finger.

Large chunk of positivity

She had a steady hand and was happy to chat about her family and dreams and career as nurse. She became my source of information and there was a lot to learn from her about Covid, patient care, situation in the hospital, the tough cases and the deaths in the ward. She would also happily announce the number of patients who were recovering.

There was always a large chunk of positivity around her, which was welcome in an otherwise depressing place.

It struck me that she and her other colleagues who nursed me back to my feet and helped me get through a rather trying period would be in the midst of another battle as patients flowed in the second surge.I messaged her, asking how she was. I received a big smiley back.

“Haan ji, bilkul theek”, she wrote, asking me how I was doing. I asked her what it was like at the hospital, and she responded matter of factly.Patients are very critical. They are unable to hold oxygen (oxygen levels are volatile). Patients were much stable during the last surge.

This virus was definitely a new variant, she said.I asked her whether she was managing well and she said she was, that she was on night duty and asked me to look after myself.I then said I hoped her family was well. “I hope so,” she said, adding that her mother and younger brother had cough.

As always, I marvelled at her equanimity, her dedication to her work and the selflessness with which she cared for patients — stuck in that spacesuit and sweating under double masks and rubber gloves for many hours.I told her that I considered myself lucky that I survived. “Yessss,” she wrote back.

Her display picture on WhatsApp tells more about her. “Shukr hai rabba tune mainu dukh sehna sikhaya, kisi nu dukh dena nahin. She is just one of the tens of thousands of frontliners in this battle we are all waging. We should be grateful to people like her.

Not Your Tibetan Buddhism


Far from being easy to grasp and anodyne, Tibetan Buddhism is rich in tantric practices, the impenetrably esoteric ideas and techniques used to try to slingshot spiritual seekers directly towards the enlightenment they seek to attain within this lifetime to best help others.

Read Here – Aeon

Western Philosophy Is Racist


Mainstream philosophy in the so-called West is narrow-minded, unimaginative, and even xenophobic…how else can we explain the fact that the rich philosophical traditions of ChinaIndia, Africa, and the Indigenous peoples of the Americas are completely ignored by almost all philosophy departments in both Europe and the English-speaking world?

Read Here – Aeon

The Madras Observatory: From Jesuit Cooperation To British Rule


The Madras Observatory offers little to the visitor’s eye. Stone slabs and broken pillars lie ignored in a fenced-off section of a local weather centre in the southern Indian city of Chennai. Few tourists venture out to see the ruins of the 18th-century complex…Yet it is the Madras Observatory, and not the spectacular Jantar Mantars, that marks the triumphal fusion of scientific knowledge and imperial power.

Read Here – Aeon

Parched Before The Arriving Rains


This May should also be remembered for its cornucopia of outlandish riches — $900 billion in China’s save-the-world-from-poverty investment, a $350 billion envelope to President Trump to help Muslims defeat each other, and a $250 billion Indian plan to turn its traders into manufacturers of sophisticated weapons.

Read Here – Dawn

A Much-Maligned Mughal


Aurangzeb Alamgir, the sixth ruler of the Mughal Empire, is the most hated king in Indian history. He ruled for nearly 50 years, from 1658 until 1707, the last great imperial power in India before British colonialism. According to many, he destroyed India politically, socially and culturally.

Read Here – Aeon

This One Is Scary


The last paragraph of a fascinating book on what is the world’s biggest problem — population.

“Over the next 15 years some 2 billion new babies will be born, 2 billion children will need to commence school, and 1.2 billion young adults will need to find work. In addition, the fastest-growing age group globally will be over 60s. Acknowledging the importance of age-structural change, and ensuring that it is integrated into national and international policymaking, will be essential as the globe transitions from a predominantly younger to a predominantly older world.”

We all need to think about this one.

(Excerpt from: How Population Change will transform Our World by Sarah Harper)